I wrote in an earlier blog about the seasonal variations of real estate sales during a calendar year (Trends In Residential Real Estate In San Mateo County). Considering that these seasonal patterns are repeated every year regardless of the overall market trends, I looked at the changes of some market parameters from their values of a year earlier. For my analyses, I used the sales data for a seven-year period from 2006 to present time (raw data source: MLS through San Mateo County Association of Realtors®). The results are as follows:

The average price of homes sold in San Mateo County declined during 2008 and 2009 and recovered somewhat during 2010. It has been fluctuating since the beginning of 2011 without exhibiting any particular direction. It appears that the major price swings are behind us and the single family home prices are stable.

The inventory of single family homes for sale in San Mateo County rose during 2006, 2007, and 2008; declined in 2009 and early 2010; and, rose again during the latter part of 2010 and early 2011. The inventory has been declining since April of 2011.

The decline of the monthly single family home sales ended in July 2008. It has been fluctuating since then with an upward overall trend. The sales numbers have increased for the first three months of 2012 by about 20% over the sales numbers of the prior year.

The rise in the average number of days it took to sell homes ended in early 2010. Since then it has been fluctuating and presently remains unchanged from the year ago values.

My observation is that the single family home market in San Mateo County is now stable. The inventory of homes for sale has been decreasing in recent months from a year ago values, while the number of monthly home sales has been going up. There has been no major change from a year ago in the average sale price of the homes and the number of days they remained on the market prior to sale. However, decreasing inventory and increasing number of homes sold may be indications of a pending upward trend in prices, while the homes start selling faster. At the risk of being repetitive, I would suggest that now is perhaps the time to act for those who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy a home when the market “bottoms.”